NFL betting season

September 9, 2010 by CindUGonna have to go with the handicappers on this one. A recent ESPN The Magazine poll had 29.6 percent of NFL players who responded (anonymously, of course) picking New Orleans to repeat. But I’m looking around at some of the biggest names in sports gambling, and the Saints are nowhere to be found.

I’ll tell you who keeps popping up on their radar screen, though: the Minnesota Vikings. And the Super Bowl betting odds are moving in that direction: The Vikings have tightened up from 11-1 at the open to 10-1, while the Saints have dropped from 7-1 to 8-1.

Lo and behold, these are the two teams who will open the 2010 regular season this Thursday night at the Superdome. This is Week 1, so the lines are a bit uncertain – some have New Orleans laying 41 points as we go to press, others are at -5 or -51. The incumbent champions are definitely getting the benefit of the doubt here. Early market reports show 79 percent of NFL bettors pounding New Orleans on the pointspread; however, 74 percent prefer Minnesota at around +200 on the football money line.

You could argue that the Vikings should have won the last time they met. That was during the 2009 NFC Championship Game, when they lost to New Orleans 31-28 in overtime as 4-point road dogs. Most people will remember Brett Favre throwing an interception with under a minute to play in regulation and the ball tantalizingly close to field goal range. The Vikings and Saints had traded touchdowns up to that point, swinging away like a pair of heavyweight boxers. New Orleans won the coin toss in overtime and delivered the final blow – an anticlimactic jab, really, courtesy of kicker Garrett Hartley from 40 yards out.

We have every reason to expect another close one on Thursday. The 2009 Vikings won the NFC North at 12-4 (9-6-1 ATS); the 2009 Saints won the NFC South at 13-3 (8-8 ATS). The 2010 model looks very much the same for both teams. The Vikings are still led by Favre, who was mostly mistake-free last year with 33 touchdown throws and just seven interceptions, while Drew Brees (34 TDs, 11 INTs) is still in charge of the Saints.

New Orleans had some room to improve on defense, so ends Alex Brown and Jimmy Wilkerson have been brought in to shore up the trenches. However, there’s a problem at linebacker to start the new season. Scott Fujita signed as a free agent with the Cleveland Browns; Jonathan Casillas, his would-be replacement on the weak side, is out for the year with a Lisfranc fracture. Stanley Arnoux is next on the depth chart, but he didn’t practice Monday because of a high ankle sprain that’s been dogging him the past three weeks.

The Saints have responded by signing a familiar face: Danny Clark, who was with the team in 2006 and was released by the Houston Texans on Sunday. Clark is a strong-side linebacker with some experience in the middle, but New Orleans needs depth across the board right now. Linebacker Clint Ingram is on the PUP list after having microfracture surgery on his knee, and linebacker Jonathan Vilma was limited in practice Monday with a right groin injury.

Add the loss of free safety Darren Sharper (knee) to the PUP list, and Favre should have ample space to throw at. But the concern with the Vikings is at wide receiver, where Sidney Rice (hip) is also on the PUP list after leading the team last year with 83 catches. WR/KR Percy Harvin (60 catches) has been suffering from migraines and had to be hospitalized at one point, but he says he’s “ready to play ball” on Thursday. He’d better be, because the only other wideouts left on Minnesota’s 53-man roster are Bernard Berrian, Greg Camarillo and Greg Lewis. Javon Walker was let go on Saturday.

It still looks even on paper. That +200 money line bet is probably drawing some sharps, but if you see the Vikings losing by a field goal again, there’s room for that in the pointspread. Now let’s play some football already.