The only sure thing in fantasy football is that there are no sure things. I've been competing for years and have yet to revel in the glory of holding up that golden, championship fantasy trophy over my head despite the fact that every year I sit back in my chair following my draft, scan my roster, and think, "This is my year. This roster is a sure thing."
Let's examine some of my previous first round "sure things" over the last three years. In 2005, I went against the grain and took a QB. Not just any QB though, the surest of "sure things," Peyton Manning. Result: I traded him mid-season for a running back and finished dead last in my league. Championship team's first pick: Corey Dillon.
In 2006, I had the first overall pick! No way was I thinking outside the box this year! I was sticking to correct drafting formula and taking a RB! Who would be a better choice than last year's reigning MVP, Shaun Alexander? He was obviously a "sure thing." Result: Alexander injured his knee mid-season and I was left relying on DeShaun Foster. I finished in fifth place. Championship team's first pick: Clinton Portis.
Last year, I was still determined to stick with a RB despite my poor luck with Alexander. I had an early pick and the obvious "sure thing" choice was Steven Jackson. A dominant running back that was in line for an MVP-worthy season. Result: Jackson was also injured mid-season and I missed the play-offs by one game. Championship team's first pick: Brian Westbrook.
I'm preparing myself and everyone for their drafts this year by teaching from my past mistakes and realizing there is no such thing as a "sure thing." In fact, maybe I'll change things up this year and draft a wide receiver in the first round. That's not a half bad idea! I bet Randy Moss is a "sure thing" ...I'll never learn.
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